Policy
Every monetary policy decision from the Fed, ECB, BoE, BOJ, SNB, RBA, RBNZ, BoC and BOK, with statements, minutes and speeches. Fiscal decisions, budgets and debt issuance alongside.
- Monetary
- Fiscal
- Speeches
- Issuance
What we cover
Our core is the front end of the curve and the events that move it. Around it, we look at policy, prices, companies, the law and geopolitics.
STIRsPolicy rate pricing, futures and OIS
BondsSovereign curves, auctions and issuance
FXRate differentials and policy divergence
Economic calendarEvery decision, release and auction, kept current
Market
What is priced and what could reprice it, measured against the policy path and the economic calendar.
- STIRs
- Bonds
- FX
- Equity
Earnings
Results, guidance and earnings and event calls, read across to sectors and the wider economy.
- US
- UK
- EZ
- JP
- KR
Laws
Event-driven. When a case, ruling or bill could move markets, we analyse it, with UK Supreme Court and US Supreme Court dockets tracked continuously.
- UK
- US
- KR
Geopolitics
Intelligence analysis of conflicts, sanctions and political events, and of how they reach rates, energy and currencies.
- Russia–Ukraine
- Iran
- Elections
Straight from the source, at every release
We pull economic data directly from national statistics agencies through their APIs, not from headline summaries. Each release is analysed at the level of the underlying series and components.
Beyond the headline
Revisions, seasonal patterns and the components that drive a print are checked the moment it is published, so a surprise can be traced to its source.
Tracked release by release
Every scheduled release is on our economic calendar and followed as it happens, including the US weekly jobless claims.
| Indicator | What we analyse |
|---|---|
| Employment | Payrolls, unemployment, participation and wages, by sector and component |
| Inflation | Headline and core, down to individual item indices and services categories |
| Retail sales | Category detail, control groups and volume against value |
| Industrial production | Sector output, capacity use and manufacturing detail |
| GDP | Expenditure and output components, revisions and contributions to growth |
| US weekly claims | Initial and continuing claims, including state-level detail |
In-house DSGE and HANK models
For selected economies, our own dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian models turn each release into a quantitative and qualitative read on the policy path.
Every word, against every word before it
Markets move on small changes in wording. Language models read policymakers' speeches and statements, and companies' earnings and event calls, alongside their own past transcripts, word by word.
Subtle shifts in rhetoric
A softer adjective, a dropped qualifier or a new hedge can signal a change in stance long before a decision does. Models flag these changes as soon as a text is published.
Cross-analysis with past scripts
Each text is compared with the same speaker's earlier statements and with peers, word by word and phrase by phrase, so that what changed is never a matter of impression.
Applied to every policy decision
Statements, press conferences and speeches from nine central banks, and earnings and event calls from companies across five markets.
- Fed
- BoE
- ECB
- BOJ
- SNB
- BoC
- RBA
- RBNZ
- BOK
The Committee judges that a gradual careful approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate, and expects to do so over the coming quarters.
- Read
- Pace no longer tied to a time frame; lower conviction on further easing.
We remain confident cautiously optimistic about demand in the second half, although order visibility has shortened.
- Read
- Guidance unchanged in numbers, weaker in language; watch the order book.
Illustrative examples, not quotations from real statements.
Event-driven analysis: law and geopolitics
Some risks arrive without a calendar date. When they do, we bring legal and intelligence expertise to bear, with language models reading the full record at speed.
Laws
We analyse cases and legislation only when they matter for markets. Models read filings, briefs, judgments and oral argument transcripts in full; analysts trained in both common law and civil law draw the conclusions. The UK Supreme Court and US Supreme Court dockets are tracked continuously.
- UKSC
- SCOTUS
- UK
- US
- KR
Selected analyses
- RTI Ltd v MUR Shipping BV [2024] UKSC 18UKSC. Force majeure, reasonable endeavours and payment disrupted by sanctions.
- Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (2024)SCOTUS. The end of Chevron deference to agency interpretations of statutes.
- Trump v. Cook and Trump v. SlaughterSCOTUS. Presidential removal power over independent agencies and a Federal Reserve governor.
- Apple v. OpenAIUS. Trade secrets dispute and its implications for AI hardware.
- Samsung Electronics union injunctionsKorea. Key injunction proceedings involving the company's labour union.
Geopolitics and politics
Intelligence analysis of geopolitical events, using structured analytic techniques to weigh competing scenarios and the indicators that would confirm them. We follow the transmission to energy, rates, currencies and risk premia.
Conflicts and sanctions
- Russia–Ukraine war
- Iran
- Sanctions
- Energy supply
Elections and political events
- United KingdomGeneral elections, leadership contests, Budgets and fiscal events.
- United StatesPresidential and midterm elections, executive action and fiscal deadlines.
- JapanGeneral elections, party leadership races and the policy mix that follows.
Coverage by economy
Calendar & data and policy analysis span all ten economies. Market analysis covers eight, earnings coverage includes five, and legal analysis is limited to the three jurisdictions where we hold specialist expertise.
| Economy | Calendar & data | Policy | Market | Earnings | Laws |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USUnited StatesFed | |||||
| UKUnited KingdomBoE | |||||
| EZEuro areaECB | |||||
| JPJapanBOJ | |||||
| CHSwitzerlandSNB | |||||
| CACanadaBoC | |||||
| AUAustraliaRBA | |||||
| NZNew ZealandRBNZ | |||||
| KRKoreaBOK | |||||
| CNChinaPBoC |
Shaded cells mark areas under coverage.
Analysts in charge, models at work
Our research is built on large language models. They read the primary sources at speed: policy statements, speeches, minutes, statistical releases, company filings and transcripts, court documents and legislation.
Analysts decide what matters, test the conclusions and sign off every piece before it is published.
- TrackPolicy decisions, data releases, auctions, results, court dockets and political events across the economic calendar.
- CollectRaw data from statistics agencies' APIs and full texts of every statement, call and judgment.
- AnalyseWord-level comparison with past scripts, component-level data work and model-based scenarios.
- ReviewEvery conclusion is checked against the source material by an analyst.
- PublishConcise notes on what changed, what is priced and what to watch next.